Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.230849 2.365037 2.506797 2.668350 2.848148 3.043035 3.271512
2025-03-23 2.048933 2.235591 2.442817 2.692245 2.987522 3.330137 3.764210
2025-03-30 1.898189 2.110079 2.353140 2.656838 3.032495 3.491034 4.108454
2025-04-06 1.783171 2.010114 2.276985 2.620279 3.060131 3.620105 4.414996
2025-04-13 1.676650 1.909937 2.189473 2.557226 3.041711 3.679971 4.627244
2025-04-20 1.626806 1.873706 2.175512 2.582319 3.134977 3.891854 5.075563
2025-04-27 1.592742 1.853636 2.178655 2.627167 3.255300 4.150228 5.629736
2025-05-04 1.561126 1.833919 2.179661 2.667231 3.369940 4.410264 6.229421
2025-05-11 1.509533 1.785345 2.139319 2.646558 3.393552 4.532606 6.615796
2025-05-18 1.464235 1.742550 2.103886 2.629470 3.419460 4.659012 7.029967
2025-05-25 1.421189 1.700636 2.067188 2.607567 3.435070 4.768458 7.431074
2025-06-01 1.380344 1.659856 2.029879 2.582033 3.442096 4.862702 7.819213
2025-06-08 1.348012 1.629850 2.006817 2.577112 3.482967 5.023174 8.392798
2025-06-15 1.328357 1.616183 2.005766 2.604666 3.578243 5.292736 9.287812
2025-06-22 1.291115 1.576920 1.966610 2.571675 3.569737 5.367491 9.736853
2025-06-29 1.255769 1.539062 1.927887 2.537103 3.555567 5.429105 10.170685
2025-07-06 1.214939 1.492342 1.874712 2.477348 3.493689 5.389598 10.321489
2025-07-13 1.200942 1.482645 1.874747 2.501137 3.579295 5.657931 11.440762
2025-07-20 1.193017 1.481076 1.886357 2.543634 3.701349 6.020410 13.024853
2025-07-27 1.184160 1.477764 1.895049 2.581576 3.818098 6.391016 14.866895
2025-08-03 1.160524 1.452493 1.869817 2.562000 3.824745 6.511314 15.846957
2025-08-10 1.138919 1.429552 1.847306 2.545816 3.836548 6.645642 16.975758
2025-08-17 1.117165 1.405819 1.822801 2.525066 3.837812 6.754693 18.075138